Week Ahead: Economic Data And Crucial US-India Trade Talks Set To Steer Market Mood

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New Delhi: The upcoming week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, is crucial for global stock markets, with key economic events scheduled in the United States, India, and China that could strongly influence investor sentiment. Market experts emphasize that progress in the ongoing India-US trade deal talks is being closely watched, as a positive outcome or signs of progress would ease uncertainties and boost market confidence. India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has expressed optimism, stating that remarkable progress is being made, and negotiations are advancing rapidly toward a significant partnership, although some issues like tariffs on agriculture remain unsettled.

In India, the week starts with the release of Industrial Production data on July 28, followed by the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI on August 1, both key indicators of the manufacturing sector's health. China will release its Manufacturing PMI on July 31, reflecting broader industrial activity in the region. Meanwhile, the US will focus on critical data including the Federal Reserve’s FOMC interest rate decision on July 30, along with GDP growth and employment reports that will shape expectations on monetary policy amid ongoing inflation concerns.

The Indian benchmark Nifty index has been declining for four weeks, weighed down by weak corporate earnings—many companies have reported results below expectations during the current quarter—and ongoing global trade uncertainties. Even though the index briefly rallied above its 20-day moving average midweek, the positive momentum did not sustain due to renewed selling pressure. Market analysts attribute the persistent weakness not only to disappointing earnings but also to the lack of strong domestic triggers and unresolved global trade issues.

Overall, while bad earnings add to market pressures, they are compounded by uncertain global trade negotiations and limited fresh buying interest, creating a bearish sentiment in the market. Yet, experts remain hopeful that any positive surprises in earnings or constructive developments in trade talks, especially between India and the US, could provide a welcome boost during the week ahead.