IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall For 2025 Southwest Monsoon Across India

India will receive above-normal rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon season, with the IMD forecasting 106% of the long-period average. Core monsoon zones and agricultural regions to benefit.

A man covers himself and walks through a rain-soaked road during heavy rainfall (IANS)

India will likely see more than usual rainfall during the coming June-September southwest monsoon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, upgrading its previous forecast made in April. The seasonal rains will be 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 870 mm, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, a clear signal of an above-normal monsoon. This is a slight hike from the earlier IMD estimate of 105% of LPA.

"The core monsoon zone, crucial for the country’s rain-fed agriculture, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall," Mohapatra said while releasing the second-stage Long-Range Forecast (LRF) during a press conference in New Delhi as quoted by news agency The Indian Express.

Monsoon To Boost Rain-Fed Agriculture

The positive forecast this year is of great value to agriculture, particularly to the kharif crops that depend largely on monsoon rains. The central and peninsular India regions, which form the core monsoon area, will get 106% of the LPA and will benefit those regions that depend on seasonal rainfall.

India generally gets more than 75% of its annual rain during the southwest monsoon period.

First Subdivision-Level Forecast Released

In a departure from the past, the IMD has also come out with rainfall predictions at the meteorological subdivision scale, providing finer details:

South Peninsular and Central India: Excess rainfall (more than 106% of LPA)
Northwest India: Normal rainfall (96–104% of LPA)
Northeast India, Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir: Deficient rainfall (below 94% of LPA)

The IMD also forecasts more than normal rain in June in most areas, with rainfall to be 108% of the LPA for the month (166 mm). However, northeast India and far northern states like Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh can expect below-normal rainfall.

Early Onset And Favourable Conditions

The monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than expected, and has since moved fast, covering areas of Maharashtra, the northeast, and vast expanses of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

Attributing the premonsoon rainfall to the early arrival of the monsoon, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said:

"Multiple large-scale climate patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have remained favourable for early and enhanced rainfall activity."

Fewer Heatwave Days Predicted

The IMD also brought some respite from the heat, predicting below-normal heatwave days during June.

"Typically, heatwaves last two to three days during this month. But with the expected above-normal rainfall, such events will be fewer and mostly confined to northwest India," said Mohapatra.