India Tops World Population Charts; Guess Which Metro Birth Rates Are Booming?

India becomes world's most populous country, but urban birth trends tell a surprising story.

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New Delhi: India has become the most populous country in the world, officially overtaking China. While the national population continues to witness a rapid grow, the country represents a contrasting trend. Birth rates are declining in several states and metro cities.

If the overall population is increasing, where are the most children being born today?

Chennai holds the top position in childbirth in the list of India’s major metropolitan cities. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, the city’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 1.65 – which is highest among metro cities. It means each woman here gives birth to an average of 1.65 children.

Following closely are Delhi with a TFR of 1.57, Hyderabad at 1.54, Mumbai at 1.44 and Kolkata at 1.40.

These numbers highlight a trend, which is urban lifestyles, rising education levels and employment opportunities are contributing to lower fertility rates in India’s largest cities. Still, Chennai remains an outlier with the highest urban fertility rate.

Interestingly, Gujarat’s Ahmedabad is also witnessing a mini baby boom. The city recorded over 100,000 births in fiscal year 2022–23 – a milestone not reached since 2019. It is the first significant spike in births since the COVID-19 pandemic. It points to a rebound in family planning and healthcare access.

There is a twist here. Several South Indian states are now actively promoting childbirth. Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister MK Stalin recently made headlines for suggesting that “the time has come to have 16 children” – a statement (many view it as bold and symbolic) that reflects demographic concerns.

Andhra Pradesh too has seen calls to boost fertility rates in the wake of fears that if the TFR dips below 2.0, population decline could soon follow.

The NFHS is a crucial nationwide initiative by the Government of India. Conducted across all states and union territories, it gathers data on health, nutrition, education, gender equality and population trends by directly interviewing households. Policymakers use these insights to formulate targeted and effective public policies.

While India takes the global crown for population, these numbers suggest that the country is faced with the dual challenge of managing growth in addition to addressing urban fertility slowdowns. Will Chennai continue to lead the baby boom among metros? Or will policy shifts spark new trends across states? Only time and the next survey will offer answers to the questions.