Water For Peace Or Terrorism? India’s Indus Treaty Suspension Sinks Pakistan Into Crisis, Diplomacy In Overdrive

Salal Dam on the Chenab river in J&K's Reasi.

New Delhi: In the rugged terrain of diplomacy and decades-old treaties, water – which is often considered the harbinger of life – has now turned into a powerful instrument of geopolitical assertion. What was once a rare symbol of bilateral cooperation between India and Pakistan, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), now hangs in limbo, dangling between Islamabad’s urgent pleas and New Delhi’s steely silence.

In April, India made a stunning move by suspending the treaty following the brutal Pahalgam terrorist attack, which killed 26 innocent lives in Jammu and Kashmir. For India, the message was enough is enough. Tolerance for cross-border terrorism has hit its limit, and business-as-usual is no longer acceptable, not even when it comes to sharing vital water resources.

According to sources in New Delhi, Pakistan’s Water Resources Secretary Syed Ali Murtaza has reached out multiple times to his Indian counterpart Debashree Mukherjee. His letters speak of urgency, diplomacy and an apparent willingness to address New Delhi’s “specific objections”. But India has not replied. Not once.

India’s official stance? “No dialogue on water, unless terrorism ends—credibly and irreversibly.”

The fallout from this hardline position has already begun to ripple across Pakistan. A recent report by Pakistan’s own Indus River System Authority recorded a 13.3% drop in year-on-year water flow from the Indus River. This decline is jeopardising critical Kharif crop sowing in its Punjab province. Farmers are now at the mercy of delayed monsoon rains, with scorching heatwaves compounding the crisis.

A Nation on the Brink

What began as a tactical diplomatic suspension by India has morphed into a full-blown existential threat for Pakistan. Over 80% of its agriculture depends on the Indus system. The flow from rivers like Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, which Pakistan heavily relies on, has reduced drastically. Experts now warn of a dual crisis – agricultural collapse and potential floods, as India is no longer obligated to share critical flood data.

Facing mounting pressure at home, Pakistan has unleashed a global diplomatic offensive. A nine-member delegation led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari first landed in the United States and pitched Pakistan’s side of the story before UN officials and senior American diplomats. “Our message was Pakistan seeks peace,” said former Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani.

They were not only talking about water. They were talking about survival.

Parliamentarian Khurram Dastgir warned US officials that the treaty’s suspension “endangers the livelihood of 240 million people”.

Climate Minister Musadik Malik echoed those fears and flagged food security and environmental devastation as looming threats if the treaty is not revived.

Pakistan also dispatched delegations to the United Kingdom, where lawmakers were told Islamabad remains “committed to regional peace” and seeks to restore the IWT through “composite dialogue”.

India is Playing with Precision

Back home, India remains unfazed by Pakistan’s global outreach. Once unthinkable, the suspension of the IWT has triggered introspection within Indian strategic circles.

Renowned geopolitical expert Brahma Chellaney called the treaty “the world’s most lopsided and inequitable water-sharing agreement”. He emphasised that Pakistan receives over 80.5% of the Indus system’s waters, including almost 100% of the western rivers. Despite being the upstream state, India settled for only 19.5%.

“Pakistan repaid India’s generosity not with gratitude, but with grenades and guns,” Chellaney wrote bluntly on X, citing a long list of terror attacks from the 2001 Parliament attack to the 2024 Pahalgam massacre.

For him, the treaty is not only about water, it is about trust. And that trust, he says, is “systematically dismantled”.

Some Indian media reports incorrectly state that Pakistan gets 80% of the waters of the western rivers (the Indus system's three main rivers). As this chart from my book shows, Pakistan gets 80.52% of the total waters of the six-river Indus system — and almost 100% of the western… pic.twitter.com/Pmd4M0F0or

— Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) June 9, 2025

Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Satish Chandra, called the treaty a “Brahmastra”, warning that its full termination could cause “extreme pain” and long-term disruption in Pakistan.

What Happens Now?

As Pakistan floods foreign capitals with diplomatic appeals and farmers grapple with parched fields, New Delhi remains unmoved. For India, any talks about Indus waters hinge solely on one condition: “Concrete, irreversible action against terrorism.”

Whether the global community can mediate or Pakistan can muster internal resolve to act on India’s concerns remains to be seen. But for now, once a river of peace, the Indus is fast becoming a river of reckoning.