As Missiles Fall, India Walks The Tightrope: What The Israel-Iran-US Conflict Means For New Delhi And The World

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New Delhi: The explosions in Tehran and Tel Aviv may feel far away, but the tremors are being felt from Riyadh to New Delhi. The widening confrontation between Israel and Iran, now joined militarily by the United States, has raised global anxiety to levels not seen since the early days of the Ukraine war. The stakes are immense – nuclear risk, economic fallout and a shifting geopolitical map.

On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities under “Operation Rising Lion”. Iran hit back with missile salvos aimed at Tel Aviv. Then came the US intervention. American jets struck three nuclear facilities inside Iran, a move seen by many as a sharp escalation and a break from previous hesitation under Donald Trump’s watch.

Caught in the middle of this volatile power struggle is India. The challenge for New Delhi is balancing ties with both Tel Aviv and Tehran – two nations it counts as strategic partners in different ways. The former is a defence ally; the latter, an energy supplier and gateway to Central Asia.

While Israel stood by India during its recent cross-border strikes in Pakistan, Iran remains critical for India’s access to Afghanistan, its regional energy strategy and the Chabahar port project. As the conflict intensifies, India must recalibrate without taking sides overtly.

Experts are of the opinion ththat India is threading a diplomatic needle, and the margin for error is shrinking.

America Breaks the Line

Until now, President Trump had kept direct US intervention at bay. But the June 13 airstrikes marked a turning point. The watchers highlighted that the US decision was not out of character. “Washington’s Middle East policy has always tilted in Israel’s favour. The only surprise is the timing,” they said.

They added, “Israel wants a strike so effective that Iran’s nuclear program cannot recover for a decade. That requires bunker-busting munitions only the United States has because Iran’s facilities are buried deep underground.”

Despite US intelligence agencies not confirming that Iran is racing toward a bomb, Trump claimed otherwise, fueling political momentum for strikes. Critics in the United States, including former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard’s team, have warned against being dragged into another “foreign war for someone else’s interests”.

In Israel, Consensus on Iran

Within Israel, the mood has shifted. Widespread protests over Gaza have now given way to a more unified stance on Iran. “Unlike the divisions over Hamas, the Iranian threat is something that unites Israelis,” the experts said.

While protests earlier demanded hostage releases and Netanyahu’s resignation, Iran has become the galvanising factor for many. “Most Israelis agree that Iran must not become a nuclear power. They see it as an existential issue,” they added.

Recent polls suggest Netanyahu’s popularity has seen a surprising bounce. The experts pointed out that “where his approval was crumbling, the Iran operation has made him appear strong again. If elections were held today, his Likud party could emerge dominant”.

India’s Delicate Balancing Act

India’s dilemma is a unique one. With over nine million Indian nationals working in the Gulf, any regional escalation could have severe economic and human consequences.

They explained the complexity, “India has long-standing cultural, strategic and economic links with Iran. But it has also grown closer to Israel on defence cooperation.”

The experts warned of catastrophic consequences if any of Iran’s targeted nuclear sites leak radiation. “India cannot afford to see this conflict spiral further. Energy prices, trade flows and diaspora security are all at stake,” they added.

They emphasised that for India, neither a rupture with Iran nor alienating Israel is acceptable. “A ceasefire is the only viable path forward, but that decision now lies in Washington,” they said.

Where Do the Gulf States Stand?

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have condemned Israel’s airstrikes, with Riyadh calling it a violation of international law. Qatar warned of severe repercussions on regional and global peace.

According to the experts, the unified response from Arab capitals is a shift. “They do not want this war. They are wary of it drawing in the US or leading to a full-blown regional conflict,” the watchers said.

The Gulf states are especially concerned about oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz – any disruption could send energy markets into turmoil.

What About China and Russia?

Both Moscow and Beijing have condemned Israel’s air raids. China even warned that Israel had “crossed a red line”. But beyond statements, neither power has offered Iran any direct military backing.

The experts explained, “Russia and China have investments in Iran, but they will not go to war for it. They might support Iran diplomatically, but no more than that.”

In fact, a prolonged US military engagement in the region could serve their strategic interests. “If America gets bogged down in West Asia, it could weaken its posture in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific,” they said.

India’s foreign policy is being tested in real time. The experts said New Delhi must maintain neutrality while protecting its core interests. A misstep could alienate key partners or endanger vital energy and security interests.

Meanwhile, in Israel and Iran, the public mood is hardening. America’s entry into the battlefield has added a new and unpredictable variable.

What happens next may hinge less on missiles and more on whether diplomacy can still find a place in this widening war.

For now, the world watches and India, perhaps more than most, listens very, very carefully.