Iran's Power Struggle: THESE 3 Groups Vying For Throne As Khamenei's Regime Faces Collapse

As Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei faces health and political crises, three groups—MEK, Green Movement, and Reza Pahlavi's monarchists—are poised to challenge for power. Explore their roles amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions and regime instability.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (IANS)

As tensions rise between Iran and Israel, with some of Iran's top military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials killed in recent attacks, speculation mounted over the fate of Iran's leadership under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The 85-year-old leader, said to be in poor health, is confronted by increasing domestic pressures, such as runaway inflation and human rights abuses, in addition to outside pressures from Israel's attacks and US accusations over Iran's nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Iranians to overthrow the regime, raising questions about who might seize power if Khamenei's rule collapses. Three prominent groups have emerged as potential contenders.

Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK)

The People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), also known as Mojahedin-e-Khalq, is a key player with roots in the 1960s as an Islamist-Marxist student militia. The organisation led the overthrow of the Shah in the 1979 Iranian Revolution via guerrilla war and bombing attacks on US-owned properties and Iranian security personnel. Following a split with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, though, the MEK was brutally suppressed. Khomeini's regime dismantled its political support, and following deadly retaliatory bombings by the MEK that killed over 70 senior Islamic Republic officials, including Iran's president and chief justice, surviving members were forced into exile.

Dropped from the UK's list of terrorist groups in 2009 and from the United States' list in 2012, the MEK moved to Albania with the help of the United States. With support dwindling and members defecting internally, analysts are skeptical that the group can topple the Islamic Republic now.

Green Movement

The Green Movement sprouted up after the disputed 2009 presidential election in a reaction against hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's suspected fraudulent re-election. The movement, which was concerned with peaceful protest and democratic reform, sought to counter the regime while pushing for increased freedoms and human rights. By February 2010, its own attempts at rallying in support of Arab Spring uprisings were brutally crushed, with leaders such as Mir Hossein Mousavi arrested or under house arrest. Although the movement has since diminished, a number of its advocates did hold faith in changing the Islamic Republic's structure without embracing Western-style democracy or accepting outside interference.

Monarchist Advocates And Reza Pahlavi

The third faction consisted of monarchists headed by Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's final Shah, who escaped in the 1979 Revolution. Based in the United States, Pahlavi has spoken of ambitions to revive an Iran that is secular and democratic. After Donald Trump's 2016 victory, Pahlavi called for outreach to Iran's democratic movement. In a recent interview with Newsweek following Trump's re-election in 2024, he saw an Iran in peace with Israel, friendly to the West, and in harmony with its neighbors. Backing Israel's recent attacks, Pahlavi asserted considerable domestic support for regime change, saying, "Our time has come after 40 years of fighting for Iran.

As Iran's domestic and foreign crises intensify, the question of who will determine its destiny hangs in the air, with these three constituencies standing as possible agents of change.