Is Iran Running Out Of Missiles? Here’s What The Numbers Suggest

New Delhi: The future of Iran’s confrontation with Israel might hang on a number that no one can confirm with certainty – the remaining count of Tehran’s medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). And as Israeli airstrikes pound military targets across Iran, that number is shrinking fast.

Over the past 14 months, Iran has launched around 700 MRBMs toward Israel, according to Israeli military data and other estimates. Depending on how many it started with – a figure that remains a matter of debate, Tehran could be down to anywhere between 300 and 1,300 missiles.

That uncertainty is what is fuelling speculation that Iran’s offensive capacity is nearing a dangerous tipping point.

The Israeli military claims its air raids over the last five days have wiped out at least a third of the launchers used for these surface-to-surface strikes. The consequences are twofold – Tehran may now find itself under pressure to pause and seek talks, while Israel is likely to double down on its aerial advantage in the coming days.

A clear breakdown of Iran’s stockpile is elusive. In 2023, U.S. CENTCOM Commander General Kenneth McKenzie stated Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of varying ranges. Of these, between 1,000 and 2,000 were believed to be medium-range weapons capable of reaching Israel – a distance of roughly 1,400 kilometers.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) estimate that Iran used 120 MRBMs during its massive April 13 strike last year, launched 200 more on October 1 and fired another 380 since the recent conflict began. That is 700 missiles, a number that could prove pivotal. If Tehran had fewer missiles than analysts assumed, it may now be staring at a strategic hole in its missile deterrence shield.

Experts believe that the depletion is severe. Taking into consideration that Iran fired around 400 to 500 in the last four days and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what it had, they believe that Tehran has now 800 to 700.

The larger picture is equally alarming. On October 26, Israeli strikes reportedly shattered parts of Iran’s missile production and air defense systems. UK Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Tony Radakin described the offensive as a wave of 100 aircraft firing from long range, effectively “destroying Iran’s ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year”.

But even as Israeli officials celebrate that achievement, the threat remains far from neutralised. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed last Friday that Iran had accelerated its missile production, churning out up to 300 missiles a month. That pace, if sustained, could yield 20,000 missiles in six years – though no independent verification has backed the figure.

Still, damage has clearly been done. The experts say that “the latest Israeli campaign destroyed the main facilities for manufacturing ballistic missile motors”, crippling Iran’s immediate supply chain. However, they warned that Iranian production could bounce back if supported by China.

They stressed that Tehran will fight hard to keep its missile arsenal in the four-digit range. Iran, they said, has long preferred to manage crises through brinkmanship rather than large-scale war, but the demands of actual warfare are forcing it into unfamiliar and increasingly costly, territory.