 "Israel-Gaza War: Will Hamas Survive The Crisis? Here's What Experts Believe")
Photo: Reuters Israel-Gaza War: Israel’s security cabinet approved a plan to take control of Gaza city. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had earlier hinted at controlling all of Gaza, but said he did not want to “keep it for himself”. What does this mean for the future of Hamas in Gaza and for the region?
Days before Netanyahu’s statement, Hamas declared it would not lay down its arms until an independent Palestinian state is established.
This came as a response to Israel and the United States during ongoing ceasefire talks. Israel demands the disarmament of Hamas as a key condition for ending the conflict. Tel Aviv sees Hamas’s disarmament as central to any peace deal.
Last week, at a United Nations conference co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France in New York, 17 countries along with the European Union and Arab League issued a joint declaration.
The declaration demanded Hamas disarm and hand over control of Gaza to end the war. Acting as mediators in the Gaza talks, Egypt and Qatar signed this declaration. Israel and the United States did not. Hamas vows to continue fighting. The group’s leader Ghazi Hamad told Al Jazeera the group will “fight until the last bullet”.
This repeats Hamas’s earlier stance that it will keep armed struggle until a Palestinian state is created.
Professor Hossam al-Dajani, a Palestinian politics expert at Al-Umma University in Gaza, says media focus has increased on Article 11 of the New York declaration after the conference.
Article 11 calls for “governance, law enforcement and security in Palestinian territories to be under Palestinian Authority control”.
He explains that the other 41 articles discuss the establishment of a Palestinian state and coexistence with Israel. He says the declaration suggests multiple paths for establishing the Palestinian state.
In an interview with BBC, he said, “If the rest of the New York declaration is implemented, Article 11 will automatically apply.”
The United States, the United Kingdom and other Western countries classify Hamas as a terrorist organisation. Hamas has stated it would hand over its weapons to the future Palestinian Authority if a state is established.
Analysts say Hamas has lost much of its control in Gaza but still governs significant parts of the region. Recently, Hamas formed a security unit called “Sahm”, also known as the “Arrow Unit”, aimed at maintaining public order and preventing looting of aid supplies.
Palestinian civilians in Gaza have expressed frustration with Hamas repeatedly, and the militants have responded to protests with force. Food and relief supplies in Gaza are extremely limited. Aid agencies and the United Nations warn of people dying from hunger.
Many analysts believe Hamas fighters are under extreme pressure. Their situation in October 2023, when they launched attacks on Israel, was not as weak as it is now.
Almost 22 months after Israel’s military campaign began, Hamas fighters are exhausted. Media reports suggest that Hamas still has weapons but their stockpile is dwindling. They report the group uses unexploded bombs from Israeli airstrikes as weapons.
Hamas fighters convert explosives into improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to attack Israeli soldiers. Regionally, Hamas has very few allies left. Iran’s ability to support it has diminished after the 12-day Israel-Iran war.
The Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has also weakened due to Israeli attacks and the killing of its leaders.
Consisting of 22 countries, including Qatar, which often shows sympathy toward Hamas, the Arab League signed the New York declaration demanding Hamas’s disarmament.
Yossi Mekelberg, senior advisor at Chatham House in London, told BBC that Israel and the United States remain firm in their stance. He emphasises that the attitude of Arab countries has changed, saying increased regional pressure may isolate Hamas “to a great extent”.
Hamas still uses some of the Israeli hostages taken on October 7, 2023, for negotiation leverage. About 1,200 people were killed in that attack, and 251 were taken hostage.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reports more than 61,000 deaths in Gaza due to Israeli strikes since then. The United States believes at least 20 hostages remain alive in Gaza; some have died, and some returned to Israel. In early August, Hamas released a video of hostage aviator David, who appeared very weak and malnourished.
Analysts say Hamas hoped the video would pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to prioritise hostage release and end the war. Families appealed to Netanyahu to focus on bringing the hostages home after the video surfaced.
Israel has killed many top Hamas leaders since October 2023, including Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s head, who was killed in an attack in Iran’s capital. Yahya Sinwar, considered a key planner of the October 7 attacks, has also been killed.
Professor Mekelberg says Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza have differing interests. He explains, “Beyond physical survival, they try to maintain political relevance as they still have support to reach an agreement.”
To stay relevant, remaining leaders will face difficult decisions.
After Netanyahu’s August 7, 2025, announcement of “full control” over Gaza and “removal of Hamas”, the group’s options are narrowing. The key question is: will Hamas survive this war in Gaza?
If a Palestinian state is established and Hamas honours its promises, it may disarm. However, as long as Israel’s current government maintains its stance, the chance of Palestinian statehood looks slim.
Even then, Hamas’s complete disappearance is not guaranteed. Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House believes Hamas might try to reinvent itself and remain part of Palestinian politics.
This change could come from inside Palestinian territories or from outside. Much depends on Israel’s attitude toward a Palestinian state. Also, it depends on how much support remains for Hamas among Gaza’s population after enduring extreme hardship.
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