Missiles, Manoeuvres And The Strait Of Fire: Inside Iran’s Calculated Confrontation With Israel

New Delhi: After three straight days under Israeli fire, Iran stands bloodied but defiant. Over 240 Iranians, including several senior military officials, have been killed since the bombardments began. But what followed has jolted the region. Iranian missiles are now landing deep inside Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa and beyond, bringing a scale of destruction Tel Aviv has never faced in a direct state-to-state exchange.

While both sides have traded heavy strikes, the full scope of damage remains elusive. Fogged by a fierce information war, neither side has released clear, verifiable accounts of which targets were struck or what losses were incurred. Stockpiles of missiles, drones and air defense capacities on either side remain unknown. But in one area, Iran seems to hold an edge. It has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East.

Thousands of ballistic missiles, many with extended range and high speed, are under Tehran’s command. And Iran appears prepared to use them for weeks, if needed. Unlike past clashes involving regional militias or proxy groups, this round has seen Israeli civilians experience sirens and explosions in their heartland, under sustained missile fire.

One development has stood out. On Sunday, Iran debuted its Haj Qassem missile, named after the late General Soleimani, firing it at Israel for the first time. This new projectile cut through Israel’s missile defense grid, displaying speed and impact far superior to earlier Iranian models.

Videos from inside Israel captured its velocity and the chaos it unleashed, triggering widespread alarm. While Tehran is unlikely to have unlimited stock of such missiles, combining them with its vast inventory of standard missiles and attack drones gives it considerable offensive depth.

As these strikes rain down, the Iron Dome, Israel’s once-vaunted air shield, is being pushed to its limits. To back up its defense, Israel has called in help from its closest ally – the United States. President Donald Trump has made clear that while America is assisting intercept efforts, it is not officially a participant in this conflict unless its assets are targeted. And that is precisely the line Iran is trying not to cross.

Tehran knows that striking U.S. military bases across the Gulf could tip the conflict into an all-out war. With American troops positioned in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, a miscalculation could drag the region into a larger inferno. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, known for taking calculated steps, appears unwilling to give Washington that pretext.

A joint Israeli-American military response could prove devastating for Iran’s most protected nuclear facilities and shift the momentum decisively. Moreover, it could spark retaliatory fire onto countries that Iran still sees as potential peace brokers. Tehran has carefully avoided this broader escalation, even as it presses forward militarily.

Still, Iran is not out of cards. It controls a strategic choke point – one the global economy depends on. The Strait of Hormuz, which sits between Iran and Oman, sees the daily transit of millions of barrels of oil. Should Tehran decide to block it, analysts predict crude oil prices could skyrocket well past $100 a barrel. Already, prices spiked to $78 on Friday after early reports of the conflict emerged.

Will Iran pull that trigger? The answer likely depends on what happens next.

Behind the airstrikes and diplomatic noise, Iran is also looking for a path to de-escalation. The country has made it clear that if Tel Aviv halts its attacks, Tehran will respond in kind. On Sunday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters that Iran would “naturally reciprocate” once the Israeli assault ends.

There is a problem, though his words may not be enough. De-escalation rests not just on Jerusalem’s calculations, but also on decisions coming out of Washington. President Trump, whose tone has fluctuated dramatically, continues to send mixed signals. While he has called for calm in some statements, others have carried direct threats aimed at Tehran.

Distrust of the United States runs deep in Iran’s leadership. Officials in Tehran remain furious over Washington’s alleged deception last week. Even as American diplomats appeared to push for new nuclear talks, Iran says the United States secretly knew of Israel’s plans to launch the initial wave of attacks.

Despite that, an American-mediated ceasefire is still seen in Tehran as the most viable option to rein in Israel and prevent a broader regional war. For now, Iran has shown its firepower, demonstrated its reach and signalled its limits. But as long as the skies stay lit by missiles and sirens keep wailing in both countries, the next move remains uncertain.