Operation Spider Web: Will Putin’s Nuclear Threat Spin Ukraine War Out Of Control?

The Russia-Ukraine war has taken a dangerous turn after Ukraine’s bold drone attack, codenamed Operation Spider Web, struck deep inside Russian territory. On June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) used 117 drones to hit four Russian airbases, damaging over 40 aircraft, including nuclear-capable Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers. This attack, hailed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s biggest long-range strike, has caused an estimated $7 billion in losses, wiping out 34% of Russia’s strategic air fleet. While Ukraine celebrates this historic blow, the world holds its breath, fearing Russian President Vladimir Putin might respond with nuclear weapons. With Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and advanced missiles like the RS-28 Sarmat, Iskander-M, Oreshnik, and Kh-22/Kh-32, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Is this the tipping point for a global catastrophe?

Operation Spider Web was a masterstroke of covert warfare. Ukrainian drones, smuggled into Russia inside trucks with hidden compartments, were released remotely to strike airbases with pinpoint accuracy. The attack didn’t just destroy planes; it hit Russia’s pride and its nuclear triad, the backbone of its deterrence strategy. Zelenskyy called it a moment for history books, but the celebration may be short-lived. Russia’s response could reshape the war—and the world.

Putin has been clear about his red lines. Last year, he revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. Now, even a conventional attack backed by a nuclear power—like Ukraine’s drone strikes supported by Western weapons—could trigger a nuclear response. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has 5,460 nuclear warheads, with 1,718 ready to launch. This massive arsenal, combined with advanced delivery systems, makes Russia’s threats chillingly real.

One such system is the RS-28 Sarmat, nicknamed “Satan-2.” This 116-foot, 220-ton intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can travel 18,000 km at Mach 20, carrying up to 15 nuclear warheads, each 2,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. Despite testing setbacks, Russia is pushing to deploy it, signaling its intent to intimidate the West. A single Sarmat could devastate multiple cities, making it a weapon of apocalyptic potential.

Then there’s the Oreshnik, a hypersonic intermediate-range missile tested in Ukraine’s Dnipro last November. With a range of 5,000 km and a speed of Mach 10, it carries six warheads, each with six submunitions. Putin claims it’s unstoppable, and even with conventional warheads, a few Oreshniks could rival a nuclear strike’s destruction. Its use was a warning to NATO, which supplies Ukraine with long-range weapons like ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles.

The Iskander-M, a short-range ballistic missile, adds to Russia’s menace. With a 500-km range and Mach 7 speed, it can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. Its maneuvering warhead dodges missile defenses, making it a nightmare for Ukraine’s air defenses. Russia has used it extensively to hit military and industrial targets, showing its reliability in high-intensity combat.

The Kh-22 and Kh-32 missiles, launched from Tu-22M bombers, are older but still deadly. With speeds of Mach 3.5 and ranges up to 1,000 km, they’ve pounded Ukraine’s infrastructure. In 2024, Russia fired at least 74 of these, targeting cities like Kyiv and Odesa. While less precise than modern missiles, their nuclear capability and sheer power make them a constant threat.

Russia’s retaliation could take many forms. A conventional response might involve intensified missile barrages, like the July 2024 attack on five Ukrainian cities using Kh-101 missiles, which damaged a children’s hospital. But the fear is nuclear escalation. Posts on X suggest Russia is considering tactical nuclear weapons in response to Spider Web, though these claims remain unverified. Putin’s own words last month—that nuclear weapons aren’t needed yet—offer little comfort when his doctrine now allows their use for attacks like Ukraine’s.

For India, watching from afar, this is a wake-up call. A nuclear escalation would disrupt global stability, spike energy prices, and threaten food security, hitting developing nations hardest. India’s neutral stance in the war has allowed it to balance ties with Russia and the West, but a nuclear crisis would force tougher choices. New Delhi must push for de-escalation through diplomacy, leveraging its voice in forums like the UN.

The world stands at a crossroads. Ukraine’s daring strike has exposed Russia’s vulnerabilities, but it may have also provoked a wounded bear. Putin’s next move—whether a conventional blitz or a nuclear gamble—will decide if this war spirals into a global disaster. The international community must act fast to pull both sides back from the brink. Dialogue, not drones or warheads, is the only way to untangle this deadly web.

(The author of this article is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany.)