Trump Cozying Up To Pakistan – Will It Push India Closer To China?

New Delhi: A meeting in Washington last month between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Pakistan Field Marshal Asim Munir sparked concern in New Delhi. Just days earlier, a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, South Kashmir, had killed 26 innocent civilians. India blamed Pakistan after a group linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba claimed responsibility.

Foreign policy watchers are now weighing a critical question: could this renewed U.S.-Pakistan engagement unsettle India’s fragile equation with China?

For years, Beijing has served as the strategic common threat binding India and the United States. Both nations view China as a geopolitical rival and have steadily expanded cooperation to counter its influence. But Trump’s warm overtures toward China-backed Pakistan are forcing India to rethink its calculus.

Diplomatic experts say India is unlikely to pivot dramatically toward China based solely on the Trump-Munir meeting. Moves to de-escalate tensions with Beijing had already been set in motion months earlier. Still, the symbolism of the meeting and its implications for India’s long-term strategy are difficult to ignore.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington D.C., said the meeting must be viewed in light of recent India-Pakistan military flare-ups during Operation Sindoor.

“It is not that India is suddenly leaning toward China because of Trump’s outreach to Pakistan. But the context matters, especially given that Pakistan used Chinese weapons against India for the first time during that conflict,” he explained.

He added that uncertainty around U.S.-India ties under Trump remains a major concern in New Delhi. “There is no clear indication of how Trump plans to deal with China. At times, he talks tough, at others, he calls for cooperation. India is wary of assuming that the United States will always align with its strategic interests on China.”

That ambiguity, Kugelman said, is one reason India has begun hedging its bets by stabilising ties with Beijing.

A Subtle Thaw Between India and China

Since October 2024, signs of a diplomatic thaw have emerged. Border troops from both sides have started withdrawing from several flashpoints along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Earlier this month, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Chinese President Xi Jinping during the SCO foreign ministers’ summit, marking his first visit to Beijing in six years.

Direct commercial flights between India and China are set to resume. The long-suspended Kailash Mansarovar Yatra has reopened for Indian pilgrims. In a move with economic implications, the government think tank NITI Aayog has proposed allowing up to 24% Chinese equity in Indian companies without special clearance.

Foreign policy commentator Indrani Bagchi believes India is proceeding cautiously. “The government is trying to introduce a degree of stability into its relationship with China. We may see some Chinese investment flowing in, but it’s unlikely to go much beyond that,” she said.

She also warned against overreacting to Trump’s overtures to Pakistan. “This is not the first time Washington has leaned toward Islamabad. Whenever it does, the trust factor in U.S.-India ties takes a hit. If the United States resumes military aid to Pakistan, it will definitely raise red flags in New Delhi,” she added.

At the same time, she noted, India has been attempting to diversify its defense partnerships, gradually reducing dependence on Russia and increasing procurement from the United States. “If America is using Pakistan as a bridge to reach China, India will be forced to reassess,” she added.

What Is Beijing’s Game?

Some former diplomats argue that if India extends a hand, China will likely respond with caution but openness.

Achal Malhotra, a former ambassador, said New Delhi’s foreign policy is guided by realism, not alignment. “Our relations with China stand on their own merit. We are prudent but sovereign in our choices. The United States knows this. Trump’s meeting with Munir likely reflects Pakistan’s geographic utility in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Unless that directly threatens India, it is not an alarming development,” he said.

Strategic analyst Zakir Hussain suggested it is U.S. inconsistency that might be nudging India toward China. “The way Washington handles its ties with India is part of the reason New Delhi may explore a less confrontational path with Beijing. Economically, some of India’s moves may lower tensions. But let us be clear that China will never abandon Pakistan for India,” he said.