Trump’s Tariffs On India Were Meant To hurt Russia – Here’s How It Could Boomerang And Hit U.S. Economy Instead

Trump’s new tariffs on India, which is aimed at punishing Russia over its Ukraine war, risk backfiring by driving up prices in the United States and straining American businesses and consumers.

Representative image (Reuters)

Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump is ramping up economic pressure to force Russia into agreeing to a peace deal in Ukraine. But as his administration pushes new tariffs on nations buying oil from Moscow, analysts say this decision could swing back and hurt the U.S. economy instead.

This week marks the expiration of Trump’s 50-day deadline to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The ultimatum is accept peace in Ukraine or face fresh tariffs, which are not directly aimed at Moscow, but at its oil customers, especially India and China.

The two countries account for the majority of Russian oil exports and are also two of America’s largest trading partners. They together sent $526 billion worth of goods to the United States last year, official data shows.

After a high-stakes meeting between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin in Moscow on Wednesday (August 6), the U.S. president decided to move ahead. Hours after the meeting ended, he imposed an additional 25% tariff on India.

“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then, for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,” Trump posted on Social Truth, justifying his decision.

But back in Washington, concern is growing that these moves may ricochet. Speaking to CNN, Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow in energy and geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warned of serious domestic fallout.

“The punishment for those countries that continue to take big volumes of Russian energy… would also hurt the United States’ economy in a material way,” he said, adding that “it would lead to more inflation” and increase import costs for U.S. businesses.

Commodity analysts are sounding similar alarms. They say that tariffs on Chinese goods, which are already taxed at 30%, could further drive up prices on everyday products such as smartphones.

Trump had earlier announced that he would raise tariffs to 100% on countries continuing to buy oil from Moscow. India, which sources 36% of its crude oil from Russia, and China, where Russian oil now accounts for 13.5% of imports, have both strengthened energy ties with Moscow since the war with Ukraine began in 2022.

As of now, the White House has not announced if similar tariffs on Chinese imports are imminent. But Staunovo doubts the administration could sustain the economic hit. “Trump blinked first (because of) the implication it had on the imports into the United States,” he said, referring to a similar round of tariffs earlier this year that were quickly scaled back during trade negotiations with Beijing.

Energy analysts believe the stakes are even higher when considering oil prices. They argue that Russia is too big to fail. It exports 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined products. These are massive amounts that cannot so easily be replaced.

Russia’s oil exports account for nearly 5% of global consumption. Any disruption in this supply, they say, could drive global oil prices higher and this hike would directly hit the United States, which still imports large volumes of crude oil.

Brent crude prices as of early Wednesday had risen slightly to $68.2 per barrel, FactSet reported. But despite being down over 8% this year, analysts warn the market could tighten quickly if secondary sanctions disrupt the flow of Russian oil.

Trump’s team is watching the energy market closely. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken with Witkoff, who was returning from Moscow after a three-hour meeting with Putin. “…I think there will be some announcements here fairly soon. Maybe positive, maybe not, we will see,” he told CNN.

The Kremlin described the talks as “constructive and useful”, though no public readout has been shared.

Back in Ukraine, the violence continues. Hours after the meeting, Russian strikes killed at least six civilians across the country. A recreation centre was bombed in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia. Two people died and 12 were wounded, including four children.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called the strike “cruelty aimed at instilling fear”. Other Russian attacks also targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A gas transmission station near the Romanian border was hit by drones, leaving hundreds of homes without fuel.

Meanwhile, NATO countries have pledged more than $1 billion in aid, and the U.S. State Department has approved a $200 million deal to help Ukraine’s allies procure military supplies on Kyiv’s behalf.

Back in Washington, the broader implications of Trump’s trade crackdown remain uncertain. Some believe there is still room for strategic adjustment. Instead of imposing high tariffs, they suggest a more moderate approach (a tariff between 10% and 30%).

Trump’s approach may be aimed at punishing oil trade that allegedly funds Russia’s war, but the economic pain is already surfacing closer to home. As pressure mounts on India and China, U.S. consumers and companies may soon feel the squeeze of their president’s tariff war.