What Happens To Russia If Iran Weakens? Putin’s Dilemma In West Asia

New Delhi: As fighting between Israel and Iran intensifies, questions are being raised over what a weakened Iran might mean for Russia – both strategically and geopolitically. With Iran under direct military assault from Israel and facing increasing international isolation, many analysts believe that a shift in power dynamics could leave Russia more vulnerable in West Asia – a region where it has long struggled to maintain influence.

The backdrop to this concern lies in the end of 2024, when Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was forced to step down and seek refuge in Moscow. Assad had been a key ally for Russia in West Asia for over a decade. His departure not only marked the collapse of one of Russia’s closest partnerships in the region but also raised concerns over the future of Russian influence, particularly in the face of growing Israeli-American alignment.

Now, with Iran facing sustained Israeli attacks and no direct military support from Moscow, some observers are asking, “Why is Russia staying on the sidelines?”

Russia officially has taken a cautious and neutral stance. President Vladimir Putin condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran but also urged diplomacy when speaking to both Israeli and Iranian leaders shortly after the conflict erupted on June 13. According to Kremlin readouts, Putin emphasised that the Iranian nuclear issue must be resolved through dialogue, not force.

Putin later told the UAE’s President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan that Russia was willing to mediate between the warring sides. While these efforts suggest Russia wants to be seen as a peacemaker, its lack of concrete support for Iran has raised eyebrows – especially since Tehran is considered a strategic partner in Moscow’s broader regional ambitions.

Analysts said the answer lies in Moscow’s own limitations. Russia is deeply entangled in the Ukraine conflict and cannot afford to open another front. It also does not want to push the United States into taking a harder line.

They pointed out that if Russia were not bogged down in Ukraine, it might have taken a stronger stand with Iran. But the situation today is reversed. Iran, which previously supplied drones to Russia, is now the one in need of weapons. Moscow is unlikely to supply advanced military aid when it is struggling to replenish its own stockpiles.

In addition, backchannel negotiations between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump may also be shaping Russia’s muted response. “Russia is trying to preserve its ability to talk to Washington. Openly siding with Iran could shut that door,” they explained.

A Strategic, Economic Risk for Moscow

Despite its neutral posture, Russia has a lot to lose if Iran falls. If Iran is weakened, the experts warned, the United States and Israel could consolidate their dominance over West Asia. “That is not a scenario Russia, China, Turkey or many Islamic nations would be comfortable with,” they argued.

Iran’s loss could mark the end of multipolar influence in West Asia. Moscow has already lost Assad in Syria. If Iran’s government were to collapse under military pressure, Russia would lose another key regional ally. The prospect raises further complications for the balance of power in the Middle East and for Russia’s long-term ambitions in the region.

There are, however, some potential benefits. A prolonged conflict in West Asia could spike global oil prices, giving a boost to Russian revenues. Still, economic gain cannot compensate for the loss of strategic depth in the Middle East.

Moscow is also reportedly trying to position itself as a potential peacemaker in the region, but Trump’s recent comments suggest the United States may be uninterested in any diplomatic role for Russia.

“Trump’s strategy appears to be one of maximum pressure. That leaves little room for Russia to mediate,” said the analysts.

The Limitations of BRICS and SCO

Iran is a member of both the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), but these groupings have remained silent. The observers say that is because these are economic and political alliances, not military ones. “These platforms are not designed to provide collective security. Also, many of their members, like India and China, do not want to antagonize the West,” they said.

Countries like China and Russia are also wary of U.S. secondary sanctions. If Washington imposes punitive measures, it could hurt their economies and force them to rethink how far they can go in supporting Iran.

The analysts have warned that a defeat for Iran would tip the scales further in Israel’s favour. They highlighted that with Assad gone, Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and Gaza devastated, Iran is the last significant counterweight to Israeli power in the region. If Iran is neutralised, Russia’s remaining influence in West Asia could collapse. China, too, would become more reliant on pro-U.S. Gulf states for energy.

This would also deal a blow to the idea of a “multipolar world”, an idea frequently promoted by Russia, China and India. A unipolar dominance led by the United States could again become the defining feature of global geopolitics.

However, the observers add a note of caution – “Even if Iran falls, it does not guarantee U.S. victory. Look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria – Western interventions often produce instability, not resolution.”

The fear is that Iran’s defeat could trigger a repeat of the cycle – regime change, refugee crises, rising extremism and a prolonged state of chaos.

Russia’s silence may be a tactical choice, but it could come at a significant strategic cost.